Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
